Could We Rely on Pumping Great Lakes Water to California to Sustain the Nation?

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This essay is part of What to Eat on a Burning Planet, a series examining innovative solutions for securing our food supply. Read more about this project in a note from Eliza Barclay, Opinion’s climate editor.

Driving north through California’s Tejon Pass on Interstate 5, you descend from the mountains into a sprawling vista of farmland unlike any other. Rows of almond, pistachio, and citrus trees extend endlessly, punctuated by fields of grapes. Truckloads of produce speed towards markets nationwide.

California’s Central Valley is crucial to American food security, supplying a quarter of the nation’s produce. Yet beneath this facade of abundance lies a growing crisis—an invisible one beneath our feet, affecting more than just California.

From coast to coast, especially across the southern Great Plains and the arid Southwest, agriculture depends heavily, and often entirely, on groundwater for irrigation. This vital resource is depleting rapidly.

What will happen to our food production if groundwater sources run dry? Without immediate action, we might face a future where water is transported from wetter regions, like the Great Lakes, to the drier areas that produce much of our food. No one envisions pipelines snaking across the country, draining Lake Michigan to sustain California’s Central Valley. However, this scenario is becoming increasingly plausible, and we may someday regret not addressing it sooner.

For over a century, American farmers have overdrawn groundwater, and as global temperatures rise and the Southwest becomes more arid, the situation worsens. Rivers are dwindling, water tables are dropping, land is subsiding, and wells are going dry. Each year, around 25,000 more farmers are forced to abandon their fields, jeopardizing both food and water security.

States are aware of the problem and are attempting to manage groundwater sustainably, but success is uncertain. Research indicates that groundwater depletion is accelerating in California’s Central Valley despite efforts under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. In Arizona, groundwater management covers less than 20% of the state, leaving much of it unregulated.

The U.S. lacks a comprehensive plan to address the disruptions to food systems caused by dwindling water supplies. The rising cost of certain foods could prompt consideration of projects like pipelines to replace depleted groundwater.

Countries like China and India are already undertaking large-scale water diversion projects. The U.S. could follow suit, but such initiatives should not be rushed. Americans, particularly in the Great Lakes region, have shown resistance to projects that divert local water to distant locations, even if it means sustaining their food supply.

Constructing a transcontinental pipeline or river diversion would be an enormous, costly, and environmentally disruptive undertaking. It would involve significant landscape alterations and human displacement. The cost of transporting water—due to its weight—would be exorbitant, requiring decades of planning and costing tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, with additional human and environmental costs.

The U.S. can still prevent this outcome. To sustain groundwater for future generations, we need accurate assessments of key aquifers, their quality, and safe pumping limits. This requires prioritizing exploration and creating a plan to curb or end groundwater depletion.

A national water policy is essential. The current fragmented approach to groundwater management is insufficient. This is a national issue that demands coordinated action.

In December, President Biden’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology sought testimony on the future of groundwater resources, including potential strategies for managing depletion. This increased awareness presents a rare opportunity to improve how groundwater is measured, monitored, and managed.

The U.S. has delayed action for decades, but that time has ended. It is crucial for the nation to act now to ensure food and water security for the future.

Otherwise, we may face the unappealing prospect of partially draining the Great Lakes to piped across the country—a costly, wasteful project that could have been avoided with prompt action.