West America, California and Florida may be 86% more at risk of forest fires in 30 years

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Reassembled data shows the risk of forest fires facing every property in the United States today, and the projected risk 30 years from now in 2052.

The data show that parts of the American West and a significant part California and Floridatoday the probability of forest fires is from 1% to 6% per year, and this probability increases sharply to 26-86%.

The data also predicts that areas at risk will grow over 30 years, and areas of the United States west of the Missouri River face a probability of forest fires of up to 86% per year.

Gulf Coast, Southern States, North Minnesotaand New Jersey’s pockets are also projected to face increased risk for 30 years.

Recently collected data show the risk of forest fires facing today at every property in the United States

Data show that in the western United States, as well as in most of California and Florida today, the probability of forest fires is 1% to 6% per year, and this probability increases sharply to 26% and 86%.  The data also predicts that areas at risk will grow over 30 years, and areas of the United States west of the Missouri River face a probability of forest fires of up to 86% per year.

Data show that in the western United States, as well as in most of California and Florida today, the probability of forest fires is 1% to 6% per year, and this probability increases sharply to 26% and 86%. The data also predicts that areas at risk will grow over 30 years, and areas of the United States west of the Missouri River face a probability of forest fires of up to 86% per year.

Recently collected data show the risk of forest fires facing every property in the United States today and 30 years from now.  Upstairs is a mansion in Lagoon, California.  forest fire burns

Recently collected data show the risk of forest fires facing every property in the United States today and 30 years from now. Upstairs is a mansion in Lagoon, California. forest fire burns

The data collected by the First Street Foundation is the first to examine the risk faced by every property in the country.  Above was a burning neighborhood in Lagoon, California, smoldering

The data collected by the First Street Foundation is the first to examine the risk faced by every property in the country. Above was a burning neighborhood in Lagoon, California, smoldering

The data was published by a New York nonprofit group First Street Foundation on Monday. This is the first comprehensive review of the risk of forest fires faced by every property in the United States, as the U.S. government provides such information only about flood risk.

First Street CEO Matthew Abbey called the forecasts for the next 30 years “simply staggering.”

The data comes at a time when climate change has led to an increase in forest fires across America, while inflation and soaring housing prices are forcing Americans into more fire-prone areas. Currently, forest fires are burning in more than a dozen states across the country.

Last week, a forest fire in Laguna Nigel, California, tore apart a community and turned 20 million mansions into ruins.

In New Mexico, two forest fires burned in a matter of days and now cover more than 298,000 acres, making it the largest forest fire in state history.

Today, Florida has the most real estate in which the probability of forest fires is at least 1%.  By 2052, the risk for many of these facilities could rise to 86%.  Upstairs in Lagoon, California, a Porsche burned down during a May forest fire

Today, Florida has the most real estate in which the probability of forest fires is at least 1%. By 2052, the risk for many of these facilities could rise to 86%. Upstairs in Lagoon, California, a Porsche burned down during a May forest fire

“For too long, we have allowed people to live in communities and even drawn them into the community, keeping them unaware of the risks they are exposed to,” said Roy Wright, former head of risk reduction at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). ). New York Times.

Wright expressed hope that the data “will draw attention to risk and make people take action.”

Evidence shows that today, half of all real estate in the lower 48 states face some degree of risk of forest fires. In some rural states, including Wyoming and Montana, 90% of real estate is already at risk.

More than 686,000 properties across the country face a probability of forest fires of at least 1% – the same percentage of risk that the U.S. government uses to determine which homes need flood insurance – and the risk of all of these projects will grow to 26%, according to the First Street.

By 2052, California is projected to be the state with the highest fire risk of at least 1%.  Upstairs car in Laguna area, California, after arson in the May forest fire

By 2052, California is projected to be the state with the highest fire risk of at least 1%. Upstairs car in Laguna area, California, after arson in the May forest fire

The data were obtained by analyzing the historical behavior of forest fires, the object’s proximity to natural fuels such as shrubs and trees, weather patterns, and projected changes in temperature and precipitation based on climate change. First Street used U.S. Forest Service data to aid in its analysis.

The Forest Service described First Street data as “smart,” but said the data should be viewed as estimates that come with uncertainty.

Director of the Forest Service Fire Modeling Institute Greg Dylan told the New York Times that even people living outside high-risk areas should not ignore the danger.

“If you are not at the lowest risk, you should talk to your neighbors about risk mitigation and what you can do. There is a possibility of fire in many of the United States. ”

Smoke and flames from a wildfire in Black, Lake, New Mexico, cast an orange streak on firefighters.  The southwest is expected to become one of the most dangerous regions by 2052

Smoke and flames from a wildfire in Black, Lake, New Mexico, cast an orange streak on firefighters. The southwest is expected to become one of the most dangerous regions by 2052

Florida has most facilities that currently face at least a 1% risk of forest fires. Next are Texas and California, each with about 100,000 facilities.

Thirty years from now, in 2052, the model predicts that California will lead with 631,755 facilities facing a risk of at least 1%, followed by Texas (474,367 facilities) and Florida 383 634). Utah, New Mexico and Arizona are projected to have 100,000 facilities with a risk of at least 1%.

By 2052, the number of countries across the country facing a risk of forest fires of at least 1% will quadruple to 2.5 million.

In Utah – one of the fastest growing states in the country – more than 5% of real estate today has at least 1% of forest fires.

Last week in Laguna Nigel, California, a forest fire tore apart a community and burned down multimillion-dollar homes.

The fire in Calf Canyon / Peak Peak Hermites in New Mexico became the largest wildfire in state history.  It is currently raging on an area of ​​about 289,060 hectares

The fire in Calf Canyon / Peak Peak Hermites in New Mexico became the largest wildfire in state history. It is currently raging on an area of ​​about 289,060 hectares

A man from New Mexico passes through his burned property destroyed in Canyon Calf / Hermit's Peak.  The big fire was the result of two forest fires merging

A man from New Mexico passes through his burned property destroyed in Canyon Calf / Hermit’s Peak. The big fire was the result of two forest fires merging

Former community mayor Fred Minagar described the destruction scenes as a “war zone”.

A coastal fire broke out Wednesday afternoon near a water treatment plant in Alice Woods Canyon, the Orange County Fire Department said.

More than 500 firefighters, some as far away as San Diego and Long Beach, arrived to fight the blaze, and 900 homes in the area were evacuated.

Sasan Daryan, 38, was sitting on the sidelines when the blaze stopped last week, watching firefighters flood the remains of his father’s five-bedroom home, and recounting how he, his daughter and his father fled when the wind blew the flames into their side and fell on their coals. and around them.

Sassan Darian holds his cat Cyrus as he stands in front of his family's fire-damaged house as a result of a coastal fire

Sassan Darian holds his cat Cyrus as he stands in front of his family’s fire-damaged house as a result of a coastal fire

Daryan keeps his cat Cyrus watching as firefighters clear up hotspots at his family's fire-damaged house

Daryan holds his cat Cyrus as he watches firefighters eliminate hotspots in his family’s fire-damaged house

“Heaven, everything was orange. It was like hell, so we just jumped in the car, ”he said. “My daughter said, ‘We’re on fire.’ There were sparks on it, and we stroked ourselves. “

Meanwhile, the fire in Calf Canyon / Hermitage Peak in New Mexico became the largest wildfire in state history. It is currently raging on an area of ​​about 289,060 hectares.

The huge fire led to the evacuation of hundreds of people, and those who chose to stay put said they were forced to run out of water and electricity because of the fire.

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